During the hottest four years, China's photovoltai

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In the past four years, China's photovoltaic industry has slid from the top to the bottom.

it took only four years for the roller coaster ride of Chinese wind power and photovoltaic practitioners to slide from the top to the bottom

unlike the overcapacity caused by technological and economic cycles in developed countries in Europe and the United States, China has its own unique "excess logic": the State Council or central ministries and commissions release industrial support policies; The local government plays a decisive role in the next process, lobbying enterprises to change banks and settle down, matching bank credit, implementing preferential measures and initially promising sales channels; In order to occupy the local market, enterprises have to build factories extensively. In addition, the prevailing idea of "growing bigger can kidnap the government and banks" has led to a sharp expansion of production capacity

when the market demand is not clear, China's production capacity often bursts from the supply side. The solution of simply expanding demand not only costs money, but also can not save the poor. In terms of wind power and photovoltaic industries, the solution to the current overcapacity should start from the supply side

Chinese overcapacity

"China's current overcapacity is not a single economic cycle."

in 2013, no PV manufacturing enterprise can make profits. The research results of the Ministry of science and technology in Qinghai are frustrating: some new enterprises are forced to stop production before they have time to put into production. Even those with strong strength can only sell at a loss without calculating equipment depreciation, just to barely maintain the cash flow

the situation of wind power equipment enterprises is similar to that of PV. After large-scale shutdown in many bases for more than a year, the former giant Sinovel wind power continued to shut down 8 overseas subsidiaries in the inland for half a year; Some production lines of Goldwind technology were shut down, and the production base was reduced to one fan in a few days; Foreign funded enterprises have left China one after another

at present, China's new energy enterprises are facing serious overcapacity

according to the statistics in China wind power development report 2012, the production capacity of China's main wind power equipment manufacturing industry reached more than 30GW in 2012, but the installed capacity of domestic new wind turbines was only 18gw that year, and the foreign market has not been effectively opened, resulting in more than 40% of the production capacity of domestic equipment being idle. According to the latest estimates, in the first half of 2013, the overall idle rate of wind power equipment in China exceeded 60%

according to the data of the Energy Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, China's PV module production capacity reached 45gw in 2012, while the global production in that year was only 38.4gw. Check whether the amplifier unit is normal. Even assuming that the modules are sold out, China's production capacity exceeds the world's total demand by nearly 7gw

according to chenweihui, chief macro researcher of nichin securities, through the fluid visualization of the whole machine, China's general capacity utilization rate is 57.8%, about 15 percentage points lower than the "desirable range" of 72%-74%. Chenletian said, "this means that China's overcapacity is very serious at present."

shenjianguang, a Chinese columnist of the financial times, said, "China's current overcapacity is not a single economic cycle."

unlike developed countries in Europe and the United States, which suffer from periodic overcapacity caused by technological and economic cycles, China follows its own set of excess logic. Guided by the industrial support policies of the central ministries and commissions, local governments have formulated preferential policies and set thresholds, and enterprises are forced or willing to rapidly expand production capacity

the temptation of "resources for industry"

with the lobbying of the local government, Zhenbei cashmere, which has already settled in the local area, has become a photovoltaic module industry irrelevant to its main business

in this process, local governments played a decisive role

Wang Chao, a British research institution, recalled the lobbying ability of local governments to create production capacity. In 2009, solar media planned a photovoltaic industrial park at the invitation of Huzhou City, Zhejiang Province. The head of the government found local people from all walks of life, such as small commodities and textiles, to lobby them to invest in the photovoltaic industry

Zhenbei cashmere, which has been settled in the local area for a long time, is the process of transferring PV modules irrelevant to its main business. In may2009, Zhejiang Beisheng PV was established

it is understood that there are a large number of enterprises that switch to new energy similar to besun PV. These enterprises were laymen before, in order to make fast money

"rent a factory. You can start production by buying a production line. When the market is good, you can recover the cost in one year." The head of Beijing Jianheng Certification Center said, "it is not easy to go deep into research and development and occupy the commanding heights of technology. China often has excess low-end capacity."

however, local governments do not always greet each other with a smile. Affected by local GDP, fiscal revenue, employment and other assessment indicators, it is difficult for those enterprises that have not settled locally to achieve sales

Taking Jiangsu Province as an example, except for the Longyuan Power tidal zone test wind farm (wind turbines of 9 enterprises have been tried out), wind turbines installed in the coastal areas of the province, such as Sinovel wind power, Goldwind technology, Shanghai Electric, etc., are all invested in Yancheng or Dafeng City. Longyuan Power, a local wind power developer, has repeatedly received "notes" from local governments. Yancheng development and Reform Commission of Jiangsu Province has specially issued documents to wind power developers, hoping that they will give priority to the frequent use of 3-cyanamide, 3-cyanamide cyanurate (MCA) and other types of units to purchase Sinovel wind power

the protectionism of local governments has obviously broken the strategic layout of Sinovel wind power

according to the statistics of Jiangsu Local Taxation Bureau, as of June, 2011, Sinovel wind power had invested 6billion yuan in Yancheng. According to the statistics of Sinovel wind power, the phase I project completed in 2009 alone can reach the annual production capacity of 1000 1.5 MW, 300 3 MW and small batch 5 MW wind turbines. It is sufficient for all the wind power installed capacity in Jiangsu Province at present

however, since the establishment of the plant, affected by the changes in market supply and demand, the construction of Sinovel wind power Yancheng base has always been sporadic, and the phase II project has not even been put into use. In the local area, the same machine manufacturers as Sinovel wind power are Goldwind technology, Shanghai electric and so on

not only Yancheng, but also wind power. Since the national signal of supporting new energy was released in 2008, more than 100 municipal and county governments have announced the construction of new energy industrial parks

"local protectionism uses' resources for Industry 'to tempt enterprises. Enterprises have to build factories everywhere to obtain local wind energy resources, and then use resources to exchange orders." Yangxiaosheng, a senior wind power expert and former chief engineer of Longyuan Power, said, "the expansion caused by this is irrational and quite blind, resulting in unfair competition and distorting the market."

simply "expanding demand" brings hidden dangers

with the rapid increase of installed capacity, renewable energy subsidies have been stretched

under the guidance of national industrial policies and the coordination of local governments, the bank's credit extension direction is inclined

"if the enterprise is not proficient in lending, the bank will teach the skills hand in hand." A person in charge of a wind power equipment manufacturer said, "most of the funds of the enterprise are borrowed."

not only the new energy industry, but also shipbuilding, flat glass, steel, cement and other industries can not expand their production capacity without the credit expansion of banks

a chief financial officer of a wind power giant said: "the more money you borrow, the more banks and the government dare not let you go bankrupt."

it is understood that the bank debt of this wind power enterprise amounts to billions of yuan. Not only does it not need to hurry to pay back the money, but it is also repeatedly subject to the bank's policy of extending the loan on the condition that "the interest is paid first"

"at least during my term of office, I will not let the enterprise go bankrupt." The financial officer quoted the vice president in charge of a bank

following this unique logic, local governments, banks and enterprises have jointly performed a Chinese cycle of overcapacity

how to save China's "scenery" problem? The most extensive way to save China is to "expand demand". However, this method seems to be no longer effective

taking wind power as an example, enterprises have gradually lost the power to expand installed capacity and production equipment

"even if the wind farm has been approved in the three northern regions, I will not install the wind turbine, which clearly shows a loss." Yang said. Longyuan Power is a leading wind power development enterprise in China and the second in the world

"Three North" is the region with the best wind resources in China, but the wind farms in this region are generally at a loss due to serious wind curtailment

although the problem of power rationing in southern China has been alleviated, the construction cost remains high due to poor wind resources, high land acquisition cost and limited scale. No enterprise dares to ensure profits except Longyuan Power said that its low wind speed wind farm can achieve meager profits

for wind power equipment manufacturers, with the unit price dropping from more than 6000 yuan/kW in 2007 to 3000 yuan/kW at present, most of them, except for the affiliated enterprises such as Guodian united power, are selling at a loss

what is more serious is that with the rapid increase of installed capacity, renewable energy subsidies have been stretched

LiuLei, deputy general manager of Huadian Fu new energy company, said: "the state owes me more than 900million yuan in subsidies." Yang Dong, chief engineer of Guodian technology and environment, said, "the subsidy accounts receivable of Guodian group reached nearly 10 billion yuan." According to the statistics of wangyonggan of China Power Council, up to now, the arrears of renewable energy subsidies have totaled more than 23 billion yuan. "The renewable energy gap is likely to grow."

even if there are no such problems as changing 1 extensive plastic granulator into a combination and an intelligent plastic granulator, simply expanding demand may not be effective. Whether it is photovoltaic or wind power, China's production capacity has exceeded the current global demand

chenletian believes that resolving the current overcapacity should start from the supply side. On the one hand, through industrial transfer, excess capacity is transferred to countries at a lower stage of development, such as Vietnam, Cambodia, Africa and other regions; On the other hand, set standards for resources, energy and environmental protection, and eliminate a number of backward production capacity; At the same time, the overall quality of production capacity is improved through enterprise merger and reorganization

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