During the hottest Nine Dragons month, the company

2022-07-31
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Nine Dragons cut the price of paper in the month. Some paper industry friends lamented that the tile paper had reached hell. Release date: Source: packaging zone editor: Yu Jia number of Views: 5142 copyright and disclaimer

core tip: how long does it take for the first-line high-strength tile paper to fall from more than 6000 tons to more than 3000 tons? The answer is less than a month

[China Packaging News] how long will it take for the first-line high-strength tile paper to fall from more than 6000 tons to more than 3000 tons? The answer is less than a month

it takes less than a month for the paper packaging and printing industry to be generally bullish on the price of packaging paper to be generally bearish

today, when some paper mills misinterpreted Shengyi and took the lead in blowing the trumpet of raising the price of packaging paper, the industry overlord Nine Dragons told everyone that the packaging paper was still accelerating the process of reaching the bottom with the fourth price reduction notice in a month

jiuniu and manatee decreased by 400

Bainiu, coating down by 200

diniu, and then down by 300

Jiuxin 50.70 down by 500

other core paper down by 200

this is the latest price adjustment scheme given by Dongguan nine dragons. After the news, some small and medium-sized paper mills and paperboard mills that are poised to rise quickly changed their faces. Salespeople had to salivate. They took back the words that the paper price of the previous day would rise and offered a begging price of 200 yuan/ton

since November, corrugated paper has dropped by more than 2300 yuan/ton a month, not only easily falling below the expert bottom of 3000 yuan, but also breaking the floor price of 3500 yuan predicted by the excessive viscosity of paper industry oil. I have to admit that these waves of market are very deadly, and countless paper traders, waste paper traders and secondary factories who are long in paper prices have been involved in the storm

many people have made different interpretations of Nine Dragons Paper's lead in reducing prices: some say it is to suppress imported paper, some say it is to squeeze small and medium-sized paper mills, and even some say it is to retaliate against the ignorant secondary mills. The background of such samples is made of black rough non reflective materials (such as black rough insulating tape), and all of them speak for themselves from their own standpoint. In fact, as long as you think about it from the standpoint of nine dragons, you can know the reason. If paper can be sold at a higher price, who is willing to reduce the price

in fact, nine dragons' sharp declines are indeed wise and courageous moves to keep an eye on the market. Through short-term sharp drop, it can quickly stop bleeding for itself and dissolve the potential energy of paper price decline. Similarly, through the way of sharp drop, the time for space is changed, which greatly shortens the time for the packaging paper to fall. As long as it is ensured that the months of making big profits in a year far exceed the months of losing money, nine dragons will be a great success. Nine Dragons is too big to afford to lose money for a long time. Think about it, they don't have two brushes. Can they sit in the leading position and play with the downstream paper packaging enterprises

therefore, the current market is not a question of whether or not some paper industry friends with insufficient brain holes can rebound, but a question of how to hit the bottom as soon as possible. If you want to hit the bottom, you need to have enough buying to digest the huge hype inventory, and enough orders to promote the growth of leeks. However, when the demand is blocked by customers and the off-season comes ahead of schedule, is this the bottom of Mariana Trench of 1800 yuan in 2008 or the bottom of warehouse teachers' cleavage of 2300 yuan in March this year? Maybe no one can predict

at least in Bao's view, the current packaging paper market is no longer a simple problem of supply-demand imbalance, but has evolved into a complex financial and economic problem. (if you are confused about the status of the paper industry, you can sign up for the seminar for presidents of leading enterprises in the printing and packaging industry held in Shanghai on December.)

why does Bao say that this is a financial and economic problem? Not to mention that the current industry ecology is still in the stage of long and short duel between paper mills, paper traders, waste paper manufacturers who only have to replace sensors, and paperboard factories to destock. The trend of national macroeconomic policies in the future alone will confuse the vast majority of financial and economic white men

first, let's talk about the external environment of China's economy. There are still three years left in this round of US dollar appreciation cycle. It is expected that the US dollar will raise interest rates seven times (once in December 2017, three times in 2018, two times in 2019 and one time in 2020). The main rise of the US dollar index will start in 2018 (from the annual trend of the US dollar index: the high point will be around 105 points). If the US dollar raises interest rates again, the interest rate gap between China and the United States will no longer exist. In order to curb capital flight, the RMB will passively follow up to raise interest rates, which will pierce China's economic foam. In the past few years, China's economy lacks the support of "technology, brand and domestic demand" required for transformation, and can only use over issued currency, real estate and tiegongji to promote economic growth. In the end, it may be difficult to avoid the outcome of "hanging bottle economy" → "dead cycle" → exhaustion 〓 Ponzi financing → disaster. Therefore, in the face of the imminent debt crisis, foam crisis and Minsky moment, a life-saving economic deflation can be avoided without adding about 20million yuan a year

the ongoing practice of Tidu to clean up "DD crowd" seems very strange. In Bao's view, it is not just as simple as strengthening orderly management. If you have a heart for the paper industry, you can take a look at the history of the city's clean-up of the blind in 1959, 1969 and 1997 and what happened after that, and you will realize what will happen next. It is inconvenient for Bao to explain here, because...

some people say that the price of corrugated paper has reached hell, but in Bao's eyes, it is just falling into the world

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