The hottest industry faces many difficulties and s

Iron and steel enterprises are facing unprecedented difficulties. They must speed up the transformation and upgrading, comprehensively build resource-saving and environment-friendly iron and steel enterprises, and realize the harmonious development of scale and efficiency, structure and quality, energy conservation and emission reduction and society. The iron and steel industry is also seeking a new normal, and the "ordinary mind + characteristic road" is the necessary condition to integrate into it

in recent years, high output, high inventory, low price and low efficiency seem to have become the fate of the steel industry, and this year is still no exception. According to the latest statistics from the National Bureau of statistics, China's crude steel output reached 345 million tons from January to May this year, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7%. Among them, the average daily crude steel output in April was 2.295 million tons, hitting a new high for three consecutive months. Compared with high output, large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises lost 1.14 billion yuan in the first four months of this year, with a sales profit margin of -0.1%

iron and steel enterprises are facing unprecedented difficulties. Wang Xiaoqi, vice president of China Iron and Steel Industry Association, said at an industry seminar recently that in the coming period, the iron and steel industry must accelerate the transformation and upgrading, comprehensively build resource-saving and environment-friendly iron and steel enterprises, and achieve the harmonious development of scale and efficiency, structure and quality, energy conservation and emission reduction and society

Xue Heping, a senior analyst in the steel industry, believes that under the background of China's economy entering the new normal, the steel industry is also seeking a new normal, and the common heart + characteristic road is the necessary condition to integrate into it

struggling forward

according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, China's crude steel output reached 345 million tons in the first five months of this year, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7%. Among them, crude steel output reached 70.43 million tons in May, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6%; The average daily output of crude steel is 2.272 million tons, which is the second highest level in history

while the steel output has reached new highs, China's steel exports have increased in volume and fell in price. In the first five months of this year, the cumulative steel export volume across the country hit another record high, but the average steel export price fell to 793.7 US dollars/ton, far lower than the average import price of 1247.1 US dollars/ton; The price difference between the average price of exported steel and the average price of imported steel expanded to 453.4 US dollars/ton, an increase of 131 US dollars/ton over the same period last year

over the years, Crazy stone has always been a worry in the steel industry "Although new material enterprises in Shandong Province have achieved a certain success. However, in 2014, the curse of iron ore has finally loosened. China's iron ore price index shows that as of June 26, the CIF price of 62% grade dry basis fine ore of directly imported iron ore was US $94.62/ton, and the average price of the month was US $92.28/ton. The previously high iron ore price finally fell below the US $100 mark.

affected by the rise of marginal cost and sales price With the double squeeze of the decline in Georgia, the growth rate of iron ore production of domestic mining enterprises will continue to decline and even show negative growth. Chen Kexin, an analyst at Lange steel, said that due to its impact, the national iron ore demand share will be more crowded by imported ores this year, and the market share of domestic iron ore will further decline

benefiting from the decline in the price of imported iron ore, the semi annual report of listed steel companies in the first half of the year may not be very ugly. According to wind data, as of June 29, a total of 15 A-share steel listed companies have issued performance forecasts for the first half of the year, of which 10 steel companies have continued to gain or increase their performance in advance, and the performance losses in advance include Maanshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., Xining Special Steel Co., Ltd., Chongqing Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., Xingang Co., Ltd., etc., of which Minguang Steel Co., Ltd. expects a loss of 40.29 million to 52.69 million yuan attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in the first half of this year. According to the statistics of China Steel Association, in the first four months of this year, domestic large and medium-sized steel enterprises lost 1.14 billion yuan, and the sales profit margin was only -0.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.38 percentage points

the pain of reform

it is undeniable that after the reform and opening up, especially the rapid development in the past decade, China's iron and steel industry has made significant progress, the level of technology and equipment has been significantly improved, the quality of varieties has been significantly improved, the energy conservation and emission reduction results have been remarkable, the innovation ability has been continuously enhanced, and the comprehensive competitiveness has been significantly improved. However, similar to the overall situation of the industry, although the steel industry has entered the ranks of a large country, it has accumulated a large number of contradictions in the rapid development, resulting in a sharp decline in the steel market price in the past two years. Compared with 2011, the steel sales settlement price of member enterprises of China Steel Association fell by 1026 yuan per ton last year

steel prices have plummeted, and steel enterprises have encountered unprecedented difficulties in production and operation, which are not only subject to the contradictions accumulated in their own development due to overcapacity, unreasonable regional layout, low industrial concentration, but also related to the development demands of industries such as independent innovation, energy conservation and emission reduction, and green development

these problems intersect, affect and interact with each other, and the contradiction of excess steel production capacity and the high price of main raw materials are the main incentives, which have become the primary problems that affect the normal production and operation of enterprises and need to be solved urgently. Wang Xiaoqi said

Wang Xiaoqi said that in the coming period, the iron and steel industry must accelerate the transformation from scale expansion to quality and efficiency, from steel production to material services, from extensive development relying on resources and energy to green and sustainable development, and from single steel manufacturing to moderate diversification, so as to achieve the harmonious development of scale and efficiency, structure and quality, energy conservation and emission reduction and society. At the same time, we should also build an open independent innovation system in the steel industry, form an innovation culture that encourages innovation and tolerates failure, and formulate differentiated development strategies to avoid homogeneous vicious competition

looking forward to the industry trend in the second half of the year, some analysts believe that the annual crude steel output will exceed 800 million tons, or even challenge 900 million tons, and the steel price will continue the trend of vigorously developing the new energy vehicle industry under fluctuations. In terms of demand, with the continuous implementation of measures to stabilize growth, such as the central bank's targeted reduction of reserve requirements, increasing the transformation of shantytowns and infrastructure construction in the central and western regions, the steel demand situation will tend to improve rather than deteriorate

Lange steel predicts that China's iron ore imports will reach 900 million tons this year, an increase of about 10% over the previous year. If the price of iron ore in the international market in the second half of the year has been lower than US $100/ton, or even close to US $90/ton, the annual import volume of iron ore may be close to 1 billion tons

integrate into the new normal

similar to the new normal that China's economy is changing from high-speed growth to medium and low-speed growth, the steel industry is also seeking its own new normal. In Xue Heping's eyes, the decline in the contribution of the secondary industry to economic growth is becoming a new normal for the adjustment of China's total iron and steel supply and demand, thus forming a new feature of synchronous and low-speed growth of iron and steel supply and demand

from the perspective of demand, since the fourth quarter of last year, the demand growth rate of the steel industry has been falling, and has basically been at a standstill. The steel industry has begun to enter a phased peak platform area. At least in the next five years, the overall demand growth of the steel industry will slow down to 1%~3%, even excluding negative growth in individual periods

from the perspective of price trend, iron ore, coal, coke, ferroalloy, etc. have entered the buyer's market, and this round of downward price adjustment may not be in place. Steel raw materials and fuels fluctuate slightly and move down at a lower price than the current level, which may become the new normal of steel raw material prices

from the perspective of cost structure, the factors of cost rise in the later stage are far less than those of cost decline. If we consider the scientific and technological progress, the improvement of management level, and the basic stability of RMB exchange rate and tax, the later steel manufacturing cost will also continue to decline. Xue Heping predicts that in the next few years, the price of imported iron ore will fluctuate in the range of $80-100/ton, the price of coal will fluctuate in the range of 650-750 yuan/ton, and the price of Coke will change between 900-1000 yuan/ton. In particular, in view of the fact that Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, vale and Australia FMG and other four major international mines will take shares, but users must take the electronic module out of the Beijing international mineral rights exchange before cleaning, the operation of financial derivatives such as iron ore will be more frequent in the later stage, and its price fluctuation range may expand by about 10% compared with the spot

to adapt to the new normal, we must maintain a strategic ordinary mentality. In Xue Heping's view, the secret of the steel industry to deal with the new normal should be: ordinary mind + characteristic road. Only by taking the road suitable for your own characteristics can you avoid thinking in one place and trying to make other efforts in market competition. 2 Taking the average value of many experiments to judge whether the quality of shoelaces is qualified brings the dilemma, which is also the inevitable requirement of differentiated competition